GOLD, DOLLAR, OIL and DOW JONES

Interesting market yesterday, because the charts show some new sign of reversal for GOLD,OIL, and DOW JONES.


GOLD

Gold gapped up yesterday and now above MA 20 and MA 50 which signal strength. Also it breaks the downtrend line.


OIL

Oil has broken the downtrend and close above MA 20 and MA 50 which also signals strength. MACD crossing and pointing up.

DOLLAR

Dollar has broken the support line and may find support on MA 20. Today the dollar futures is up while stock market has not opened yet. The dow, gold futures also point up. Usually dollar futures would be points down if gold and dow futures point up. We have to check whether the inverse correlation between them still valid or starting to change.

DOW JONES

Dow Jones close above its MA 20, again it signals strength. Also DOW has broken the downtrend line.
Because DOW still below MA 50 the uptrend has not been confirmed. Should wait for higher low for another confirmation for conservative trader.
With less bad news to discount,good news from US economy indicator, it is likely stock market will go up in short term.
The most bad news is Greek debt which has been contained for a while.


Best regards


Snip

NVDA revisited

I did a cut loss for NVDA as planned and after that it goes up. This one of classic example of psychology of trading. I could ignore my cut loss plan for the next trading or stick to it because I would not be able to tell the futures. After analyze the NVDA chart, the stock was at Fibo 50% that acted as support level. I admit that it was missed by me. At that time I just want to keep my loss small.

It is not small profit that kills traders but big loss will.

The NVDA chart was taken today while market still open, the chart may be different when stock market close.

Best regards

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Does Bull get enough good news?

Market still open and currently is at green area. First falling weekly jobless claim and help from EU for Greece boost market. From technical point of view, dow at resistance line, but has not recaptured above the MA 20 and 50. If we trade based on news, trader can do speculative buy because if there is no bad news to be discounted, market should go higher from now. Or we can wait until higher low of Dow are formed and go long from that point.

But until that time, I will stay bearish.

Best regards

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DOW close below 10,000

DOW close below 10,000 the important psychology support level. From technical view, it confirmed the down move. The dragon fly doji yesterday was a failure bullish reversal sign, because today candle does not close above previous highest price. Looks like it is true that last Friday bounce only from short covering (taking profit) and speculative buy (buy on support). Without solid fundamental news, the stock has hard time to go up. This situation is similiar with year 2007 and 2008. Becareful with long position.

When big money start to go out from stock market, it is hard to prevent the downturn. Only when the stock market oversold, we can play long position.

Best regards

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Bear Market anyone?

US Stock Market has breached the important support of 10,000 and fortunately close above it in the closing time.

The long black candles recently showed on Doji is signs of fear. Fear is stronger than greed. That's why the down move is faster and more devastating. Dow create lower high and almost close below 10,000 but the support is very strong there. We can see minor technical rebound on Monday but the weekly move should be continue down.

I remember the dragon fly doji was also formed on August 2007 after The fed made emergency rate for discount rate. The volume was very high at that day. On the other hand, the last Friday doji is not followed by significant fundamental news, so I think this will only be a technical rebound where speculator bought in hoping of up move in next Monday.

When dow is still below MA 50, I would say that the intermediate trend is bearish. Should sell the rally unless the higher low is formed.

GLD (Gold ETF) lower high has formed. Big institution may already taking profit from it.

UUP (Dollar ETF) uptrend has been confirmed, but the shooting star show possibility of minor down next monday.

USO (Oil ETF) lower high has formed, but the price was hold on important support. Need to close below support to confirm downtrend.

What I see is, the money flow start to move from stock market, gold, oil into dollar. Taking profit action is in the way. The market has no good news to be discounted and Obama make it worse with his plan with banks. So the market has began to discount situation that is indicated by the bad news.

The next important support is MA 200. If it is breached, then it is a bear market again.

Everyone expect V shape recovery. Before that many analisyt predict W shape recovery. So when everyone already sure the recovery will be V shape, very little trader predict W shape recovery... then market can do the opposite. Becareful.

Best regards

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