Bearish Sign on Dow Jones Index (June 22, 2009)

After 3 months rally, the bulls of US stock market looks tired. On June 22, 2009, Dow Jones index close below its 50 days SMA after retest 200 days SMA and failed to break above it. This is clearly a bearish sign from technical analysis point of view. Also dow fail to make new highs but create lower high instead.

I use Fibonacci Retracement to calculate the down target for dow jones.
Based on the 23.6% retracement the target is 8313 and if the dow break that, the next target will be 38.6% retracement which is 7959.
After that, next target will be 50% retracement at 7673.

When the 50% retracement is reached then there is big probability market will reverse to uptrend again. Before that happen, let's ride the downtrend by this moment.

Best regards,

Snip